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Dear Yahoo!:
How do scientists predict the Northern Lights?
Teresa
Wasilla, Alaska
Dear Teresa:
We took a chance and entered the expression "aurora forecast" into Yahoo!'s search box. Within the Aurora Borealis Yahoo! category, we found a site from the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, and a sub-page titled Aurora Forecast.

It offers daily forecasts for Alaska, and information about how to interpret them. We learned that "predictions are now mainly based on interpretations of satellite observations of active structures on the sun and of the solar wind between the sun and the earth."

During periods of increased solar activity the Northern Lights, also known as the aurora borealis, become more active and unpredictable, as well as more likely to be seen south of the Arctic Circle. The current active period began in 1998 -- it's expected to peak during 2000-2001, and continue until about 2003. In contrast, cycles of solar disturbances and auroral displays are more regular and predictable during years of minimal solar activity (1994-1998 was such a period).

For a brief explanation of the basics of the aurora we recommend the Straight Scoop -- a lucid introduction to Alaskan Space Science. If you're planning to take pictures don't miss Shooting the Aurora Borealis, Dick Hutchinson's incredible photo collection featuring advice based on more than ten years of experience. Just don't ask us if you can really hear the Northern Lights.

 
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